ABSTRACT
Surveillance testing and quarantine have been effective measures for limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission on university campuses. However, the importance of these measures needs to be re-evaluated in the context of a complex and rapidly changing environment that includes vaccines, variants, and waning immunity. Also, recent guidelines from the CDC suggest that vaccinated students do not need to participate in surveillance testing. We used an agent-based SEIR model to evaluate the utility of surveillance testing and quarantine in a fully vaccinated student population where vaccine effectiveness may be impacted by the type of vaccination, the presence of variants, and the loss of vaccine-induced or natural immunity over time. We found that weekly surveillance testing at 90% vaccine effectiveness only marginally reduces viral transmission as compared to no testing. However, at 50%-75% effectiveness, surveillance testing can provide over 10-fold reduction in the number of infections on campus over the course of the semester. We also show that a 10-day quarantine protocol for exposures has limited effect on infections until vaccine effectiveness drops to 50%, and that increased surveillance testing for exposures is at least as effective as quarantine at limiting infections. Together these findings provide a foundation for universities to design appropriate mitigation protocols for the 2021-2022 academic year.